by Naohisa Hirakataa, Nao Sudoa, and Kozo Uedab
We evaluate the implications of spread-adjusted Taylor rules and capital injection policies in response to adverse shocks to the economy, using a variant of the financial accelerator model. Our model comprises the two credit-constrained sectors that raise external finance under credit market imperfection: financial intermediaries (FIs) and entrepreneurs. With the model estimated using the U.S. data, we find that a spread-adjusted Taylor rule mitigates (amplifies) the impact of adverse shocks when the shock is accompanied by a widening (shrinking) of the corresponding spread. We formalize a capital injection policy as a positive (negative) amount of injection to either of the two sectors in response to an adverse shock (a favorable shock). In contrast to a spread-adjusted Taylor rule, a positive injection boosts the economy regardless of the type of shock. The capital injection to the FIs has a greater impact on the economy compared with that to the entrepreneurs. Our result shows support for adopting the spread-adjusted Taylor rules and capital injections, although welfare implication varies depending on the source of economic downturn and excessive responses aggravate welfare.
JEL Codes: E31, E52.
Full article (PDF, 45 pages 951 kb)
Discussion by Karl Walentin
a Bank of Japan
b Waseda University