by Roman Horvátha, Kateřina Šmídkováb and Jan Zápalc
We assess whether the voting records of central bank boards are informative about future monetary policy using data on five inflation-targeting countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Sweden, and the United Kingdom). We find that in all countries the voting records, namely the difference between the average voted-for and actually implemented policy rate, signal future monetary policy, making a case for publishing the records. This result holds even if we control for the financial market expectations, include the voting records from the period covering the current global financial crisis, and examine the differences in timing and style of the voting record announcements.
JEL Codes: D78, E52, E58.
Full article (PDF, 19 pages 277 kb)
a Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University, Prague and IOS, Regensburg
b Czech National Bank and Institute of Economic Studies, Charles University, Prague
c London School of Economics, CERGE-EI, Prague and IAE-CSIC, Barcelona